Fig. 10

Comparison of standard kernel (A, C) and expanding kernel (B, D) daily probability surfaces for simulated pathway #41 on days 2 and 100 (mid-trajectory). Smoothed probability surfaces are normalized to the maximum value for each day and truncated at normalized values of 0.05. Land is indicated by gray areas. Triangles indicate known (simulated) locations (orange), weighted mean pathway locations (pink), and Viterbi pathway locations (blue)